Ukraine Sale, Again.

August 28, 2014

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


Tonight’s evening watch was prepared by Geoff Bysshe, President, MarketGauge.

Once again news of escalating conflicts in the Ukraine spooked the markets overnight and into our opening bell. However, the fear didn’t last long. Stock indexes didn’t spend much more than 10 minutes selling off before they turned up and spent the day in a lazy effort to climb higher.

The indexes didn’t make it back to unchanged, but many stocks did, and more. So once again, geopolitical events provided an opportunity for swing traders to buy their favorite stocks on sale, and they did. It also provided us with an opportunity to see which stocks and ETFs hold their support levels on a down day as you’ll read about below.

Tomorrow is the last day of summer vacation for Wall St. I’d expect that trading to be thin and boring.

S&P 500 (SPY) - Opened lower but closed above prior day's low. Never even threatened the key 199 level. Just more consolidating at new highs.

Russell 2000 (IWM) - Fell harder than the rest and recovered less, but still holding firm over the 50 DMA breakout level and the 10 DMA.

Dow (DIA) - Followed the other markets.

Nasdaq (QQQ) -Another narrow range day and almost closed up on the day. Helped by TWTR up 3% and the semiconductors (SMH) posting strong gains.

XLF (Financials) - Closed down but spent the day in its 5 minute opening range.

KRE (Regional Banks) - Didn't recover like other groups and closed down .79%. It did hold the 10 DMA and the top side of an important support areas of 38.40-.60. A more robust test and hold of this area would set it up for a sustainable move higher.

SMH (Semiconductors) - The best looking recovery from the lower open of all the ETF's on this page.

IYT (Transportation) - Broke below 6 days of consolidation, but closed back above the low of 15.37 (marginally). I would not buy weakness here. If it slides under today's low, look for major support at 149

IBB (Biotechnology) - Went up when the market when down, but closed lower, and at the low of the day. Feels like consolidation near the highs. The 2014 highs are at 275.40. Looking for a pullback to support in the area of 270 to 268.60.

XRT (Retail) - Hit hard on the open but closed near the high of the day. It needs a rest.

IYR (Real Estate) - Held up very well to create another tight consolidation day on the 10 DMA, and sitting on a good support from 73.50-.30.

ITB (US Home Construction) - Tested the low end of the a tight 6 day range on the 200 DMA and came right back. 23.75 is the key low level to hold.

GLD (Gold) -Back over the 200 DMA, the 10 DMA and 124 which is the swing level to break to move to the upside, but was weak to sideways after its modest gap higher. 123-122 levels are good support.

XME (Metals and Mining) - never recovered from the lower open. Stuck in a range from 42.85 - 44.20

USO (US Oil Fund) - After 6 days of consolidation it broke higher and closed over the range and the 10 DMA (first time in 5 weeks). It's ready to move. I'll focus on the long side. If you look at weekly lows there is another trend line from the 2012 lows that comes in at 34. Based on last week's daily action it time to start looking at last week's 34.50 area as potentially a low risk trade to pick a major low.

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) - Nice strong day closed over the pivot area.

FCG (First Trust ISE Reserve NatGas) - Held firm all day. Consolidating under the 20.90 - 21.00 level which is the important level to break.

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) - Pulled back and stopped near the 43 level I've been focused on. If it heads higher, today's low is a good stop.

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) - TLT - Gapped higher as you'd expect with today's news, but may need a rest.

UUP (Dollar Bull) - Pull back day from the 22 level that is probably going to be hard to break. I'll be interested when it pulls back to 21.80. The weekly base is very impressive.

EEM (Emerging Markets) - Big gap down to key support level of 45. Held firm.

IFN (India Fund Inc.) - Held its breakout nicely.

EWW (Mexico) - Held up well and closed near the high of the day. 71 is the support I'd focus on.

FXI (China Large Cap Fund) - Broke below the key level of 40.65, but held key level of 40.30.

CORN (Corn) - Moved up nicely but still in a range.

JO (Coffee) Consolidated under 38, again.

Bye for Now!

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