Inside the Window of Opportunity or Risk

March 13, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


blankTwo out of the four market indices had inside trading days today. An inside day is when the current day’s trading range is literally inside the prior day’s trading range.

Imagine inside days like when investors look inside a window and can only see a portion of the house.

From that viewpoint, they pause and try to decide if they should enter the house or turn and run for the hills.

In the S&P 500, Friday’s trading range made a high price of 238.02 and a low price of 236.59. Today’s high and low was 237.86 and 237.24.

Not only did the range stay well within Friday’s range, the range itself was less than ½ of what SPY trades ordinarily. Hesitancy and confusion.

What might we see if we investors peek into the Modern Family’s window?

Will tomorrow entice us to take a calculated risk and enter the house?

Or, will Amityville Horror-like ghosts spook us from taking any unnecessary risk?

The Russell 2000 (IWM) did not have an inside trading day.

After trying to rally back above the 50 Daily Moving Average and back into an unconfirmed bullish phase, IWM closed green but not by enough.

Retail continued to weaken. No inside day for Granny. Apparently XRT is convinced that the house has poltergeists living in it. I suspect only an exorcism will get XRT to rally. However, anything is possible.

Transportation’s house looks equally ominous. No inside day in IYT, therefore no ability to peek inside. Without even a minimal view into what comes next, IYT went back into an unconfirmed warning phase. Furthermore, the chance of a bloody sacrifice increased.

Regional Banks (KRE) followed the lead of the SPY and posted an inside day. Makes sense that our Prodigal Son would offer us only a limited window view ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting.

KRE leaves us with one finger on the doorbell and one foot ready to run. Its 50 DMA is uncomfortably close to current levels.

Biotechnology (IBB) or the Family’s Big Brother, believes that no matter what he can concoct a potion to evaporate the ghosts of the market.

No inside day, IBB closed green and above the pivotal $300 level.

Finally, Sister Semiconductors made a new all-time high. In every story, haunting or not, there is a protagonist-the one to tell the tale.

SMH is either the market’s protagonist or its allure leading us to danger.

S&P 500 (SPY) Inside day which means a good follow the way the range breaks, especially if in the direction of the trend

Russell 2000 (IWM) We need this back over the 50 DMA to get too excited.

Dow (DIA) 209 pivotal and also had an inside day.

Nasdaq (QQQ) 131.68 the all-time high. 130.80 pivotal support

KRE (Regional Banks) Inside day. 57 pivotal support. Back over 58 better. 56.35 the 50 DMA

SMH (Semiconductors) New all-time high

IYT (Transportation) Unconfirmed warning phase-167.26 the 50 DMA

IBB (Biotechnology) 300 pivotal

XRT (Retail) Made a new 2017 low. Ominous

IYR (Real Estate) 76 support held with an inside day

GLD (Gold Trust) 114 big support -I am watching carefully for entry

SLV (Silver) Like that this held 16.00-low risk support line

GDX (Gold Miners) 22.00 pivotal

USO (US Oil Fund) Fourth day of unusual volume. Over 10.34 better

OIH (Oil Service Holders) Could be bottom in place-had an inside day-one to watch

TAN (Solar Energy) Like better over 18.05

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 118 now resistance-broke the 80-month MA. Hasn’t done that since 2013

UUP (Dollar Bull) 26.02 support and now 26.29 resistance

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