New Mexico R.I.P (Ripple in Peace)

March 14, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


blankToday, news came out that New Mexico, our home state, has the highest unemployment record in the country. With a rate of 4.7% nationally, NM’s rate stands at 6.7% up from 6.5% a year ago.

Here are the top 3 reasons why:

  1. Volatility in the oil and gas sector, which has led to layoffs
  2. Declines in health care and hospitality jobs due to uncertainty of the future of the Affordable Health Care Act
  3. NM Governor, Susana Martinez, vetoes agricultural bills related to hemp production

Reason number one impacts more than New Mexico.

Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, Texas and Wyoming are just a few of the states that rely on natural resources for tax and revenue.

Reason Number 2:

According to statisticians, the Republicans’ repeal and replace plan would cost NM up to 19,000 jobs and $2.2 billion in funding, a hit that could throw the state back into recession.

Reports show that a huge state like California could lose 209,000 jobs and cost the state economy $20.5 billion. Plus, many other industries would also be adversely affected by an ACA repeal, including healthcare suppliers and local businesses.

Restaurants and retail outlets where healthcare workers spend their income would suffer. As if Granny Retail XRT can handle any more suffering, poor woman!

If by now, you are thinking that recession can indeed hit these states for reason number one and two are you just a little bit concerned now about adding reason number 3?

Furthermore, are you thinking domino effect?

Reason Number 3:

Some estimate that the global market for hemp consists of more than 25,000 products such as Textiles and fabrics, yarns, paper, carpeting, home furnishings, construction and insulation materials, auto parts, food and body-care products.

Yet, there is no large-scale commercial production in the U.S. The U.S. currently depends on imports.

Oh-Can you guess which country is the largest hemp producer? China!

The DEA deems it illegal to grow hemp in the U.S. So, states such as North Dakota, Montana, Vermont, Colorado and New Mexico have applied for state licenses.  All the above except NM have been granted those licenses.

What does this have to do with the stock market?

Today, oil declined further, although with now 5 days in a row of huge volume, USO may have finally found a bottoming reversal pattern that needs a second day to confirm.

The AHCA fights to pass into law.

Hemp? Fuhgeddaboudit! Although legal hemp and weed would go a long way to solve lots of issues.

New Mexico may be tiny in population, but it is a state in these United States.

 A little domino cannot push over an "ultra-big" dream. But, that little domino can push over something a bit bigger and start a ripple effect that eventually crushes the big one!

S&P 500 (SPY) The inside day broke lower. Eyes will be on 235.74-last week’s low to hold. Over 237.70 relief

Russell 2000 (IWM) At this point, the charts indicate to sell rallies unless clears/closes over 137.15

Dow (DIA) 207.87 last week’s low.  Back over 209.35 better

Nasdaq (QQQ) Not ready to give up. Held 130.80 beautifully. 131.68 the all-time high.

KRE (Regional Banks) Tested but held the 50 DMA at 56.38

SMH (Semiconductors) 77.35 big area to hold. Doesn’t look done yet. Her sibs in the Family are afraid of a trap.

IYT (Transportation) One of SMH sibs who feels that way, today confirmed the warning phase. 162.50 next support

IBB (Biotechnology) 300 pivotal

XRT (Retail) Maybe this can work itself up from here-but has to clear/close over 42.00

IYR (Real Estate) 76 support held

GLD (Gold Trust) 114 big support although seems to look like its bracing itself for higher rates

SLV (Silver) This too with 15.75 next support

USO (US Oil Fund) Fifth day of unusual volume. Possible reversal bottom if closes over 10.21

OIH (Oil Service Holders) Waiting for confirms so important-now a new possible bottom working-

TAN (Solar Energy) 17.78 some support but if breaks can see 17.50

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 118 now resistance

UUP (Dollar Bull) 26.02 support and now 26.29 resistance

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