June 20, 2017
By Mish Schneider
There’s the market and then there’s a hologram of the market.
A hologram is a 2-dimensional image that contains all the 3-dimensional information of an object.
When viewing a hologram, you can tilt the image and see the orientation of the shape move. It’s as if you see the object in the picture from a different angle.
How does that apply to the market?
The market appears 2-dimensional although it is 3-dimensional.
The “wishful thinking” type attitude reflects a 2-dimensional perception.
Many different policies that Wall Street loves were promised, yet have not been delivered.
The 3-dimensional reality shows up as a market struggling to keep up these high price levels.
The action continues to satisfy the diehard bulls looking at one reality.
But for a lot of other investors, they see a complacent and reluctant underpinning.
The market’s hologram is 2-dimensional although it appears 3-dimensional.
The market’s hologram allows all investors to tilt the picture to see the market from many different angles.
Early today, the Dow Jones made another new all-time high. Bullish, right?
Although the Russell 2000 provided a different experience.
What are some of the different angles investors perceive?
Falling further away from the top of a daily and monthly chart channel, IWM appears more like the stark 3-dimensional reality of things to come.
NASDAQ, after rallying yesterday to resistance at 140.60 or the fast moving average, today saw both the reality and the hologram of its reality align.
QQQs traded inside Monday’s trading range, yet closed in the red.
The same is true of Semiconductors, Regional Banks, and Transportation.
Those sectors represent 3 members of the Modern Family that look as if they are replacing the 2-dimensional laser beam hologram image for a plain 3-dimensional actual image.
The star of the day was Big Brother Biotechnology. But I use the word “star” to mean a holographic star.
The diehard bulls looked at today’s action in this sector as if it represents reality.
Perhaps it does. But whose reality?
On the other side of that reality is brick and mortar retail. XRT, the retail ETF, is close to breaking an 80-month trend up.
The long bonds continue to rally (rates softening), while the U.S dollar firms.
Commodities’ prices suffer, taking the “low inflation” sentiment of the Fed to heart.
When an actual photo is cut into pieces, you see only the pieces.
When a hologram is cut into pieces, the entire hologram of that real image is shown in each piece.
Maybe that explains why, no matter what is happening, the bullish sentiment prevails. They see a hologram intact rather than a market coming to pieces.
Monday Benzinga pre-market show delayed until Wednesday morning 8:35 AM ET https://premarket.benzinga.com/pre-market-show/
S&P 500 (SPY) Through 245 the rally continues. Under 243 suspicious. Under 240 even more so
Russell 2000 (IWM) Might have failed the channel for real. 140 pivotal. 137.50 support
Dow (DIA) New all-time highs and then closed on the intraday lows
Nasdaq (QQQ) 140.70 resistance. 138.75 support. Under 137.70 trouble
KRE (Regional Banks) 56.00 resistance with 53.75 the underlying support
SMH (Semiconductors) 82.35 the 50 DMA. Has to clear 86.10.
IYT (Transportation) Resistance all the way up to 172.89. 170 pivotal. 168 support then under 165 trouble
IBB (Biotechnology) 300 now must hold
XRT (Retail) Sad Granny-going further south
IYR (Real Estate) 81.00 pivotal
XLU (Utilities) 53.25 area near-term support.
GLD (Gold Trust) Still like if holds 118 and clears 120
GDX (Gold Miners) I still want to keep a close watch here-if clears 22.25 a trigger
USO (US Oil Fund) Maybe a reversal-again. Even better would be a gap up leaving today as an exhaustion gap bottom
TAN (Solar Energy) Until this closes a week out over 18.80 not much to say
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 127.37 was the old gap high and now through it see move upside. Below, and perhaps that’s it for the rally.
UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.40 resistance and under 25.10 not so good
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