October 9, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Lots and lots of selling came in ahead of the official beginning of earnings season. Alcoa came in better giving it an initial post market run, which later fizzled out. Whether that translates well for the US markets remains to be seen. All the indexes closed under fast moving averages as it's deja-vu all over again talking about the 50 DMA.
S&P 500 (SPY) Now, a return over 144.80 is the new relief area with the 50 DMA at 142.80. Significant distribution day in volume-but not enough to think blow off dump
Russell 2000 (IWM) 82.26 is the 50 DMA to watch. The logical conclusion to trade the range break today mentioned in last night's Daily was pretty darn logical.
Dow (DIA) 134.80 is the fast moving average which it closed beneath but not by that much. Therefore, more logic-look here to see if that can clear and the impact on the rest of the market.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Sliced through the 50 DMA but with enough volume to make a possible scenario for that blow off dump mentioned above. What would confirm that? Watch to see what AAPL does
ETFs:
GLD Was October 4th the huge 2012 double top? 170.05 is the high of 9/26 the day before it gapped higher-watch that to see what happens next
XLF (Financials) 15.77 support.
IBB (Biotechnology) Keeping out its way for now
SMH (Semiconductors) 30.86 the 9/26 low held. Wouldn't put high stakes on that, but good to note
IYR (Real Estate) In hindsight we can see that 9/25, when this was first to break the 50 DMA, QE3 might not be all it was supposed to be
USO (US Oil Fund) After 2 inside days, this was a doozy of a range follower
OIH (Oil Services) This held 39.00 and did return move over the 200 DMA-for now
XLE (Energy) Sloppy but still a contender
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs held the 200 DMA so far.
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