Like Finding A Needle In A Stack of Needles

February 9, 2015

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

Captain Miller Saving Private Ryan

When “Saving Private Ryan” came out on DVD, our family watched the film in its entirety at least two dozen times. They watched the opening scene when the soldiers land in Normandy on Omaha Beach another 20 times at least. With surround sound, the bombs and gunshots reverberated throughout the house, yet after a while, I got used to living in a war zone for about forty-five minutes every day.

Over the weekend I wrote about the Volatility Index (VXX) and the Golden Cross (when the 50 crosses over the 200 DMA) which has not happened since 2012. Since volatile means uncomfortable, charged, explosive, inflammatory, turbulent, I expected fireworks in the market as the week began and volatility increased.

Now granted, the market did open lower and traded lower throughout the session selling off 95.00. However, the volume was light, the phases unchanged (bullish in 3 of the 4 indices) and my 3 “tells” did not flinch comparatively. The Russell 2000s held the 50 DMA, Oil (USO) tested the 50 DMA although could not pierce it, the Interest Rates TLTs did not drop nor firm by any notable means and the Financial Sector ETF XLF, held good support at 24.00.

The market action brought to memory the “Saving Private Ryan” movie days certainly in no way to undermine the sacrifice our soldiers made in WWII, rather to illustrate that with the persistent trading range (now 26 days and counting) the Volatility Index although worth noting, might be merely the market’s way to remind us that the same loop played over and over after a while, has more of a numbing than fearful effect.

S&P 500 (SPY) Bullish Phase 204.34 the 50 DMA needs to hold on a closing basis or we go towards the lower end of the range

Russell 2000 (IWM) Bullish Phase should hold 117.57 the 50 DMA

Dow (DIA) Bullish Phase the 50 DMA at 176.45

Nasdaq (QQQ) Confirmed Warning Phase Would be good to see this clear 103.14 the 50 DMA and stay there. 20231 next nearby support

XLF (Financials) 24.00 held and back over 24.18 would be even better otherwise see 23.77

KRE (Regional Banks) Looking to buy a dip around 39.00

SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed Warning Phase 52.89 support with a move over 53.60 better

IBB (Biotechnology) Support at 311

XRT (Retail) Look for follow through to upside back over 96.00 as still a good looking group

IYR (Real Estate) 79.13 the 50 DMA

GLD (Gold Trust) Inside day and Held the 50 DMA with the 200 DMA the resistance

GDX (Gold Miners) Inside day and nears to clear 22.00