Market Bull Decay

July 30, 2018

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

blankTough day for the NASDAQ bulls.

Facebook declined another 2%. Twitter fell by another 8%.

Google dropped by $22.00, Netflix by $20.00 and Amazon shed $39.00.

The Russell 2000 confirmed the Warning Phase while Semiconductors went into an unconfirmed Warning Phase.

Rates firmed, the dollar dropped and Crude Oil recaptured $70.00 per barrel.

Yet, once again, Transportation (IYT) hung tough.

In fact, after IYT’s inside day last Friday-traded within the range of the day prior-today, IYT attempted to get passed $200 with a high of $199.73.

It could not. It closed only slightly red.

Brick and mortar retail (XRT) closed green.

So, if you are bull trying to preserve your capital, unlike our poor bull in the photo, where should you look for some formaldehyde?

Over the weekend I shared the weekly charts of the Modern Family sectors including the Russell 2000.

All showed clearly that on a weekly basis, the bias is still positive.

Also over the weekend, like some message from the trading gods, I went to the mall in Albuquerque, NM.

I was blown away for two reasons.

First, because the mall was packed!

Except for before the holidays, I have never seen so many people out shopping in the typical retail mall chains.

Secondly, all I have been reading about concerning the malls becoming more event-driven, is coming to pass.

There is a bowling alley, children’s playground, a choo-choo chain, car auctions and more.

So, to escape the heat of the summer on a Saturday afternoon, shoppers gathered making me think, “Huh, I see no signs of recession. At least not here.”

The weekly chart on Granny Retail (XRT) had the Golden Cross.

However, on the daily chart, XRT has made multiple attempts to crack 50.00.

That’s the point bulls need to look for to stick.

Over 50.00, a consumer driven rally means more to me than a tech driven rally.

It is possible to see tech stall while retail gains.

Therefore, should XRT hold and clear 50.00, that could just be the formaldehyde our bulls need.

S&P 500 (SPY) 278.40 some support. And back over 281 will get bulls juiced.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 164 held today, which is Bollinger band support. But needs to get back over 166 to spark interest

Dow (DIA) 252.00 support. Good if can clear 254.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Broke the support at 174.75 but bounced back above it to close just above the 50 DMA. If can get back over 177 relief. If not, tech bubble still bubbling

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