January 22, 2018
By Mish Schneider
Unlike the vegan couple pictured above, the market chows down on a side of beef to keep up its iron levels.
However, as extraordinary as these sixty-something’s running 26.2 miles a day for a year eating only raw, plant-based food is, it pales compared to the ongoing and relentless bull market.
The big news-not that it had much of a negative impact before it was big news-the government has sidestepped a shutdown.
With that, the indices made new highs. Granddad Russell 2000 (IWM) struggled to do so until seconds before the closing bell.
IWM needs to move even further outside of this recent trading range for confidence.
So does Transportation (IYT).
Meanwhile, Semiconductors, Biotechnology and Retail hum along.
Are IWM and IYT going vegan in contrast to their carnivore brethren?
Both the U.S. Dollar and the 20+ Year Long Bonds have their last vestiges of support around 23.45 and 120.60 respectively.
Today, UUP-the Dollar bull ETF closed red yet above the major support by $.15.
The TLTs-20+ Year Treasury Bonds ETF, are far from the support level and close basically unchanged from Friday.
Bank of America believes it has a formula to gauge when the market will melt down.
According to BAML's analysis, such a reckoning will occur once (1) real gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts rise above 3%, (2) wage inflation climbs higher than 3%, (3) the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 3%, and (4) the benchmark S&P 500 surges above the 3,000 level.
Nevertheless, we see no reason to wait for all their four points to line up.
In fact, we believe that the dollar alone can relay the “reckoning” long before all the other factors do.
Should the dollar break (UUP) below 23.45-especially as we close out January, consider that a precursor for a possible meltdown.
Furthermore, should IWM fail to hold the new highs and IYT fail to make one, thereby breaking last Tuesday’s lows (155.80 and 201.63 respectively), evidence for caution.
What’s missing from the older vegan couple’s diet is protein. But after 366 runs, they are done.
What might be missing from the market’s diet is roughage.
If we think of the US dollar as necessary fiber, without it, the market could develop bowel problems.
Please join me Tuesday night for a free webinar How to Profit From Mish’s 2018 Phases and Forecasts.
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S&P 500 (SPY) On the half hour chart, this has not closed below S1 since 1/10. That number tomorrow, 280.65 area.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 158.25-50 now pivotal support
Dow (DIA) Like SPY, hasn’t broken S1 on a ½ hour since 1/10. That number tomorrow-260.15
Nasdaq (QQQ) Like SPY and DIA-so S1 tomorrow is 166.5
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