May 12, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
One of the more interesting points of data to come across my twitter feed last week was a Gallup poll based on telephone interviews conducted from April 4-14th 2013 with a random sample of 2,017 adults. Margin of sampling error plus or minus 3 percentage points. The poll shows that the percentage of U.S. adults invested in the stock market has fallen to lowest levels in over 15 years and continues to drop from its peak in 2007. Without going into the plethora of theories one could come up with as to reasons why-companies not investing as much in 401ks, less personal income, a great divide between Wall and Main Street, etc, etc; two things seem clear from this poll. First, with so much cash sidelined, the market could literally be only in the infancy stage of this bull move. Secondly, and perhaps my greatest wish, is that people need to step back from the talking heads and find reliable, trustworthy mentors (like the Marketgauge crew i.e.) who can help demystify the trading process. Teachable, repeatable, systematic and comprehensible trading strategies are tantamount! That and a great stock picker can't hurt! After all, people are programmed to only feel successful if they don't lose money and have little trust/knowledge in how to invest money to make it grow!
Just a few samples from the awesome feedback I get every day:
@JoeD…@MMMPrem I got in BSX when you mentioned ... buy when crossed 8 that was my plan thanks.
@dogtheboy @MMMPrem Tried one on my own from Nugget list, SPWR using 30 min OR breakout, +1/2 atr using mini swing rules and feeling good!
@bobbyl…@MMMPrem took your advice on TRIP got filled with limit order at 53.63 happy camper so far!
S&P 500 (SPY) Ended the week with an inside day near the highs and not overbought. Good place to begin on Monday.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 97-98.00 reasonable target if holds 95.00
Dow (DIA) 152-53 resistance with gap low from May 06th crucial point to hold.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Inside day at the highs as well. 74.00 still a target but no reason 77-80.00 not in the cards unless this crashes from 71.80
ETFs:
GLD Ugly ending back under the 200 weekly moving average. If that is to remain the case, 140.50 now resistance
XLF (Financials) 2 inside days to end the week. Big eyes here for a continuation of the move up just beginning or the first real sign of impending doom if the range breaks to the downside
IBB (Biotechnology) Well, that reverse candle from the highs didn’t last long! Now, ended the week on new highs.
SMH (Semiconductors) Whoa! Making up for 12 years of consolidation in just one week!
XRT (Retail) Buying stuff-what we like to see!
IYT (Transportation) Inside day.
IYR (Real Estate) Took a breath at week’s end and now has an inside day and good point to keep going from
USO (US Oil Fund) Crazy session on Friday, but maintained the Accumulation phase
OIH (Oil Services) 45.12 is the 2013 high and if clears, a very bullish sign
XLE (Energy) Through 81.00 also has huge potential
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Yes, I called it! Now, ended the week over the 50 and 200 simple moving averages. And so it begins-express train to unconfirmed bullish phase.
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) 60.00 resistance
XHB (Homebuilders) Going, going, gone
UUP (Dollar Bull) First time this closed over the 200 weekly moving average since the July 2010. Now, 22.69 the 2013 high has to clear.
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