November 6, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Day of election and market continues to hold support testing yet another level of resistance be it last Friday's high or the overhead 50 DMA. That puts the technical analysis looking at a very clear window. Either the market continues through these key areas, or fails and brings us back to watching the 200 DMAs. Most important is that no matter what the next administration brings forth, traders keep their minds open to all and any possibilities without emotions.
S&P 500 (SPY) Accumulation in volume and a perfect example of the aforementioned in that it ran to Friday's high which just happened to also be where the 50 DMA lives.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 82.10 now some support, but Friday's high and the 50 DMA are the real areas to clear
Dow (DIA) Accumulation day in volume. Cleared 131.35, but not Friday's high. Then, the 50 DMA is just above that. As with the other indexes, today's low is very important support to keep this rally intact
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Confirmed warning phase and underperformer (AAPL is the culprit). Under the 200 DMA should test the 10/26 low 65.35. Otherwise, the real point to clear is 66.21 Friday high. And even then, far from the overhead 50 DMA.
ETFs:
GLD After an inside day, huge move higher on big volume. Filled the gap. Weak warning phase. Expect some digestion before we know next move.
XLF (Financials) Held 16.00 and stopped short of Friday's high 16.20. Through that, should keep going. Under 16 next time, vulnerable.
SMH (Semiconductors) Confirmed recovery phase and cleared Friday high. Next hurdle is the 200 DMA. Want to see it hold today's low.
XRT (Retail) Good move off of the 50- DMA stopping at Friday high 64.00.
IYT (Transportation) Phase change to unconfirmed accumulation.
IYR (Real Estate) Inside day-definitely waiting for election results and a good one to follow the range break
USO (US Oil Fund) Big move, filed gap. Short covering perhaps ahead of election as still in bear phase
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Returned over the 50 DMA.
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