Should Investors Stick Their Necks Out?

February 28, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

mdaily20170229Salvador Dali, the surrealistic painter, described the Giraffe as a “masculine cosmic apocalyptic monster.” He believed it to be a premonition of war.

In his 1937 painting, “The Burning Giraffe,” Dali said it is “a kind of allegory which serves to illustrate a certain insight.”

In nature, Giraffes use their height and keen eyesight to see danger coming from a distance. They could be considered an early warning system.

The market paused and sold off ahead of Trump’s address to Congress.

Using the Giraffe as an allegory for what might happen after tonight’s speech, was today’s selloff an early warning?

Interestingly, consumer confidence reflects optimism with today’s index reading at a 15-year high. However, the Gross Domestic Product flatlined at 1.9%.

If consumers expect the economy to expand while the GDP shows the economy is stagnant, isn’t that a kind of allegory which serves to illustrate a certain insight?

Who is right- the consumer or the flat GDP?

Perhaps the most significant early warning sign comes from our Family’s matriarch and patriarch.

As 70% of the GDP, Retail (Grandma) reflects the 1.9%.

XRT sits on its last vestige of support right above the late January, early February lows.

No doubt Granny has spooked the Russell 2000 (Granddad). IWM could be our masculine cosmic apocalyptic monster. Or perhaps our premonition.

Today, after a second and weaker test of the top of the monthly chart channel, IWM fell into last week’s 3-layer magic cake custard layer. That layer represents the high price of the January 6-month Calendar range.

With the end of the month, the 6-month calendar range high and the custard layer test will put us on notice. Unless IWM can retake 138.75-139 quickly, we might have seen the top.

For now, 137.50-138 is a reasonable level to gauge whether the Russell’s should rise again or fall further.

Transportation (IYT), the sector most likely to react well should real infrastructure changes occur, weakened. However, the action appeared more like profit-taking ahead of tonight rather than aggressive selling.

Monday night, Biotechnology (IBB) traded like the tutti frutti with booty. Tuesday, it saw little of the pessimism in the Russell 2000 and Retail sectors. Better sign for confidence.

Although, I suggest you do make note that Biotech has little to do with the GDP and more to do with how much speculators are willing to invest.

Should more investors finally stick their necks out?

Giraffes, spend most of their day eating. They sleep less than two hours a day. Nevertheless, as efficiently as nature created them, predators and a shrinking natural environment have made these animals vulnerable to extinction.

The market must avoid predators. To its advantage, it does much better in a manufactured environment than animals do. Yet we must also remember that the market too remains vulnerable to extinction.

S&P 500 (SPY) 240 still in focus should it hold 235.80 support

Russell 2000 (IWM) A perfect test of the top of the monthly channel. Now, back over 138.50 perhaps the channel can pierce. But under 135 area, would think party over.

Dow (DIA) Then there’s this. Inside day near the highs. 207 key support.

Nasdaq (QQQ) Held the fast-moving average. Under 130 though will look a bit more vulnerable

KRE (Regional Banks) Through 58 should continue up, provided it holds 57.00

SMH (Semiconductors) Unless this clear 77.50, it too looks a bit toppy especially if fails 75.50.

IYT (Transportation) 171.15 key to clear and 166.50-167 support to hold

IBB (Biotechnology) 300 has been resistance. Now, 291 is the first area of support.

XRT (Retail) 42-43 ultimate support

IYR (Real Estate) Over a 5-month base so looks good if holds over 79.00

GLD (Gold Trust) 118 now support although could see move down to 116 area and still look good

SLV (Silver) 17 pretty much max risk with 17.50 strong resistance

GDX (Gold Miners) Just holding the 50 DMA.

USO (US Oil Fund) Amazingly sideways. Could be cup and handle. Could be bear flag-hard to say Subscribers: The automated model lowered the trend strength rating and we exited under the 30-minute opening range. However, might buy a close over 11.60 for a full position.

XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration) On the 200 DMA

TAN (Solar Energy) Not a good-looking candle. Must hold over 18.20 or so to stay a contender

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Market starting to bet on higher rates-yields rose today.

UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.80 support 26.25 resistance

FXI (China) 37.75 area support

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