Sometimes I Just SMH & Wonder How SMH Got Here

July 31, 2016

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


More and more common when communicating on social media is the use of abbreviations. SMH, which traders identify as the symbol for the ETF for Semiconductors, in Instagram world stands for “Shaking my head.”

In social media SMH mostly stands for disagreement, discontent, and dissatisfaction about the social reality. As I dug deeper, I found that SMH can also be used to express amazement.

The Modern Family loves SMH as its Sister Semiconductor. Clearly, even if not all of the members of the family are following her as enthusiastically, they have to be amazed by her strength!

Earlier last week I shared information about runaway or measured gaps. The difference between your everyday gap and a runaway is that the runaway literally runs away to a new all-time highs or lows.

Semiconductors had not one but two in the course of a week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF DIA had one as well. Only, that gap was filled. Since filling a runaway gap often implies the end of the “run,” with Semiconductors still partying, you too might be SYH (shaking your head.)

How then, do we reconcile the incongruities and ever-changing relationships in the market now that August is here?

Once DIA filled the gap last Tuesday, it traded beneath the fast moving average for the rest of the week. It closed Friday inside the range of last Thursday or with an inside day. It closed down on the week.

Semiconductors, rested. Best we can tell, that rest looks like healthy digestion rather than the end of the up move. Furthermore, SMH closed up for the week.

With interest rates falling further, metals rising higher, Nasdaq trading inches away from all-time highs, the financials wallowing about and oil sitting near the all-time lows, I’m not only shaking my head, I’m scratching it too!

We began this year with an outlook-buy and hold the metals and certain commodities.

As we delve deeper into the second half of the year, I cannot help but wonder if the Federal Reserve, after the disappointing GDP for the second quarter came in at 1.20% versus the consensus estimate of 2.6%, will go the way of negative rates.

That will certainly help the metals and commodities even further. Yet can it spur the economy on?

At least consumers spent more as a result of a stronger job market. But that got me wondering whether the economy is “shaking its head” at the possibility of recession and inflation happening simultaneously.

Classically, the term for that is “stagflation.” That’s when the economy is in a recession while experiencing serious inflation.

Stands to reason that once I allow myself to go “there,” I shake my head rather vigorously. Thank goodness for now, the other SMH in our lives-Sister Semiconductors-helps us put all such thoughts aside so we can continue to enjoy the ride.

S&P 500 (SPY) I just remembered two years ago thinking 220 in the SPY. That’s if it holds 215.

Russell 2000 (IWM) A slight range expansion with decent volume. 123.50 resistance 118.83 support

Dow (DIA) Needs to clear 185 and hold 183.35

Nasdaq (QQQ) 115.75 the December 2015 high

XLF (Financials) Consolidation mode continues

KRE (Regional Banks) Could not end the week over 40.40 to change the longer term trend up

SMH (Semiconductors) Looks like digestion

IYT (Transportation) 143 pivotal 138.60 weekly support to hold

IBB (Biotechnology) 290-294 resistance then see 310 if clears it. 280 support.

XRT (Retail) Through 45.50 better

IYR (Real Estate) Cleared 84.50 and then closed on new highs

ITB (US Home Construction) Once broke the 10 DMA had a nasty selloff

GLD (Gold Trust) Filled a gap. I would buy dips more aggressively

SLV (Silver) 18.90 now support. 19.45 recent highs. Cleared the 200 week moving average

GDX (Gold Miners) 30.73 recent highs.

USO (US Oil Fund) Got the relief rally on Friday. Over 9.80 it should continue

OIH (Oil Services) Held where it needed to and closed where it needed to. Some follow through and it will look even better

TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) Holding the 50 DMA

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Looks even better through 142

UUP (Dollar Bull) I could not have been more wrong last week thinking this would clear 25.06. But that was before GDP and BOJ

FXI (China Large Cap Fund) Consolidation mode

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