August 7, 2016
By Mish Schneider
A Bull’s skull draped in Eagle feathers and the face of the American flag mounted on buckskin donned with Native American sleeves.
With last week ending on new all-time highs in the S&P 500 and on a one-year high in the Russell 2000, I thought this piece from our personal art collection a perfect representation.
Indeed, a victorious week for the bulls after the better-than-expected jobs report. The Modern Family (IWM, KRE, SMH, IBB, XRT, IYT) celebrated in kind.
You know what else celebrated? Several soft commodities. You know what else looks like it bottomed? Oil and…you know what else might have topped? 20+ Year Treasury Bonds. Sorry. (Please read with a scrunched up face feigning tears)
The market has had a dual relationship with Bonds. At times, rates firming has suggested confidence. At other times, it has instilled fear.
Will the Fed finally take that confidence to heart and gulp-raise the rates?
One major argument against is the upcoming election. Another argument against is the lukewarm GDP this past quarter. They might stick with the “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” philosophy.
Nevertheless, the Modern Family now takes an even more critical role as best sign to gauge a possible policy change. Equally important is (for the umpteenth time I’ve mentioned it this year) rising inflation.
If the Family continues to rally, particularly the Russell 2000 which last week fashioned a tee shirt after our art piece, that tells us that the U.S. Economy is growing. And speaking of tee shirts, have you checked out the price of cotton futures lately?
Over the last several weeks, cotton has risen from $.66 per pound to nearly $.77 per pound. Although relatively cheap compared to its peak in March 2011, like so many other commodities, it’s been a sleeping bear that awoke hungry in 2016.
Best case scenario is the U.S. economy continues to expand witnessed through the price action in Retail, Transportation and the Small Caps. The speculative money keeps flowing into Biotechnology. The commodities’ prices rise enough to signal a growing global demand yet not too much to alight inflation.
Furthermore, nothing devastatingly terrorizing happens. And, if August transpires accordingly, most likely the next Fed statement will reflect a more hawkish tone without actually doing anything pro-active to upset the apple cart.
After our January 2016 buys, we now feel sated enough having feasted off the metals this year. We still have scraps, but are leaving the fate of those in the talons of scavengers.
With preened feathers and keen eyes, we hunters seek fresh hunting grounds.
So, to help you fill your quiver, here’s the concise ETF analysis:
S&P 500 (SPY) I hope the 10 DMA proves as a valuable MA to help you know when to pull back and when to get in more aggressively. Friday, it gapped open above it after 3 days trading below.
Russell 2000 (IWM) 123.53 the last high before last August’s crash.
Dow (DIA) 186.08 the 2016 high. 184.15 pivotal support
Nasdaq (QQQ) No runaway gap, but still impressive
XLF (Financials) Not quite at the January high of 24.27. 23.70 area is now pivotal support
KRE (Regional Banks) Very far from the 2016 high of 43.00. However, now over 40.00 which becomes the risk point
SMH (Semiconductors) I told you our sister is feelin it.
IYT (Transportation) Like KRE, better but far from the 2016 highs. So if you watching the Family-these MUST catch up to see a growing economy for real
IBB (Biotechnology) Quiet inside day but did close above the 50 week moving average
XRT (Retail) 46.50 Granny’s 2016 high. Far yet
GLD (Gold Trust) Not bearish but I am glad we anticipated the fatigue. Has liked 125 support.
SLV (Silver) Could drop to 18 and still hold the breakaway gap.
GDX (Gold Miners) The all-important 10 DMA sits at Friday’s lows
USO (US Oil Fund) Although far from a real reversal of trend, for now it has legs and could see a move back to 11.00
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) This rallied $3.00 from the 200 DMA I pointed out and suggested you buy against last week. Now, unconfirmed bullish phase
TAN (Guggenheim Solar Energy) 22.00 important level
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 136.99 the July 21 low.
UUP (Dollar Bull) Good rally but not enough to get it back over 25.05-that’s the point of resistance to clear or not
EEM (Emerging Markets) Highest weekly close since last October
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