August 24, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
SPY Can't argue with a good rally at the end of the day, but still cannot get overly excited since volume went back to anemic after an accumulation day yesterday. Plus, as the chart points out, it filled the gap. Now, it did close above the adaptive moving average. That suggests that the rally is still intact although weak and a break of S1 or 116.50 would be a significant blow to the market. In terms of pre and post downgrade. 120.08 was the close that infamous week. For now, trailing stops on new longs because one never knows, but still very respectful of the bear market and how big rallies can be deceptive.
DIA Oopsie, today was the death cross. Pretty much the same as SPY, filled gap, over the adaptive moving average and low volume. Now back under 111.30 starts to look more vulnerable.
QQQ One day behind the others so today was the accumulation day in volume, but not that exciting since still well below the average volume. Only one that could not fill the gap to 53.02. Must hold above 52.00 or back to trouble. A move over the gap fill and could see 53.80 area, the close of the downgrade announcement week. With Steve Jobs resigned, nervous longs will be shaken out of AAPL. But, the word is he will remain as Chairman of the Board.
IWM At this point, over 70.00 is encouraging. Otherwise, like the others, filled gap, low volume and needs to hold today's low.
ETFs:
GLD Where did all the volume go? That's right-exiting gold. Distribution day and still in a bullish phase. Has lots of room for that to change. Before the last $15.00 move, the swing low was 167.77. The ideal scenario would be some sideways action and then a low risk entry off of established support.
SLV Opened just below last Thursday's low at 40.36 and got slammed. But also still in a bullish phase.
USO Exited with a basic scratch since there was no advantage of holding the long position. Has positive pivots and held the adaptive moving average so will look for a new entry.
SMH Watching the fast moving average at 28.81 with gap fill to 29.06 and adaptive moving average at 29.45. No loss stop on recent buy.
IBB Gave you the dip we were waiting for. Next resistance at 94.44.
TLT Once it broke 109.28 bought TBT and took 1.5 ATRs out for a miniswing trade. Now, damage done to TLT but on light volume. Like GLD, will wait for some sideways action before considering a new long entry.
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