The Miraculous Stair-A Rally of Legend

April 26, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


blankIn 1878, after nine days of Nun’s prayers, a rare helix-shaped spiral staircase leading up to a loft appeared at the Loretto Chapel in Santa Fe.

With no attachment to a wall and built with dowels and wooden pegs, this staircase is billed as a “miracle.”

The builder, whoever he was, built a innovative masterpiece. Upon completion of the staircase, he disappeared without pay or thanks.

The staircase has two 360 degree turns and no visible means of support.

Today, Mnuchin announced “the biggest tax cut in American history.”

Yet, with no indication of whether the plan would be paid for or how, the scantily detailed proposal faces Congressional obstacles.

So after 100 days of the administration’s most devoted supporters praying for a miracle, can this tax reform get its two 360 degree turns with no visible means of support?

What can we expect from the rally of legend if it does or does not?

Looking at the market internals, year-to-date, Semiconductors yields the most gains at 12.4%. Energy posts the biggest decline at nearly 8%.

The Oscillators approach overbought in the S&P 500. Even more so in NASDAQ.

Short-term Volatility sits near its historical lows. However, intermediate-term Volatility has moved up.

Over the last two weeks, the S&P 500 has had only 2 accumulation days in volume versus 4 distribution days. That means the sellers have come out to play on the down days twice as much than the buyers have on the green days.

Last night I predicted that if “the Russell 2000 takes out the top of the channel on the monthly chart at 141.50 area, maybe it flies as high as 143 level.”

But by the end of April or sometime in May, if IWM closes or trades considerably beneath 140, the rally may max out.

Today, IWM took out 141.50, although closed a bit lower. Making new all-time highs, it pierced the top of the monthly channel. Prediction in motion.

Conversely and ominously, Transportation (IYT) traded back into a Warning Phase.

The announcement about the possible dismantling of NAFTA sent Kansas City Southern Railroad plummeting.

Concern that a trade war will occur with Canada and Mexico translates to a reduction of demand for rail services.

Like tax reform though, nothing tangible has transpired.

While yields fell, the financial sectors gained. Gold, the go-to trade for the very, very nervous, also closed higher.

A rally built with dowels and wooden pegs, when one adds up all the realities, myths and perceptions, it does seem nothing short of miraculous.

One thing we can guarantee, if the tax reform indeed fuels the rally of legend even further, its builder will not disappear without pay or thanks.

S&P 500 (SPY) 239-240 resistance 235.25 key support

Russell 2000 (IWM) If fails 140 now, especially by the end of this week, I’d be cautious

Dow (DIA) Resistance at 210-212. If 209.44 breaks, could see down move to test 208 area

Nasdaq (QQQ) A monthly close under 133.45 would make me cautious

KRE (Regional Banks) Unconfirmed bullish phase.  50 DMA at 55.50 now pivotal

SMH (Semiconductors) 80.00 pivotal

IYT (Transportation) Unconfirmed warning phase. 165.90 pivotal

IBB (Biotechnology) Confirmed bullish-needs to hold 293.30

XRT (Retail) 43.83 the 200 DMA and 42.50 key support

IYR (Real Estate) 79.00 the 200 DMA to hold. 81 resistance

GLD (Gold Trust) 125 in focus if holds 120 still

SLV (Silver) Stopped at the 100 DMA

USO (US Oil Fund) Needs to get back over 10.45-10.50

XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration) Looks the most promising of the energy sectors if can hold around 35.00

TAN (Solar Energy) Closed over 17.50 so waiting to see if that level holds

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Inside day. 121.38 yesterday low support to hold

UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.50 area support on multiple timeframes holding

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