The Tell Tale Signs $SPY $QQQ $IWM

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The telling sign Wednesday was that although S & P 500 and DOW took out previous day highs, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 did not. In this treacherous market, all indexes in alignment is the best scenario and anything other than that, is one for the daytraders and the nimble. So, when we finally see everything firm at once-along with the key sectors and groups-with volume, there will be something to cheer about. Another indication will be the bonds-as long as the TLTs go up, the risk on will keep trading volatile and uncertain.

S&P 500 (SPY) Distribution day in volume with back to an unconfirmed distribution phase as the 200 DMA is within sight but at this point, ephemeral. FED speak Thursday. Continue to watch the 200 DMA and if more selling comes in, support at 135.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Never crossed previous day hi and now getting oversold making the short side risky. If this gets back over 80 would go long but ultimately has to cross the 200 DMA to stick.

Dow (DIA) Friday low still in place meaning that a move above today's high would be relief. Otherwise, oversold with next support 125.50 area.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Ridiculously oversold weekly RSI. 62.15 good support. AAPL could be basing now.

ETFs:

GLD Stopped dead in its tracks at the 50 DMA keeping the weak warning phase intact. 166 remains pivotal

SLV Closed over the weekly moving average but not the 50 DMA. 31.00 big area to hold

XLF (Financials) Closed over Friday low 15.39 but, unless clears 15.67, likely to see the 200 DMA

IBB (Biotechnology) 131.60 to hold or quick trip back to test 129

SMH (Semiconductors) Long time readers know that I never want to stick around in a party that the semis do not come to. Until clears the 50 DMA, aside.

XRT (Retail) Holding the 200 DMA and one of the best looking groups. Has to close over 61.45. Otherwise, will have to visit the 200 DMA again.

IYT (Transportation) Thought this would be the next group to firm for a swing, but with the close under the50 DMA, more sideways looks to be in store Subs: Unconfirmed phase change to bearish.

IYR (Real Estate) Has to close back above the 200 DMA.

USO (US Oil Fund) Not oversold so a good place to look at for shorts (SCO)

XLE (Energy) Landed on the 65-weekly moving average. Now, has to get back over the 200 DMA to be a contender.

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) The bleed has to stop here as well.

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