March 31, 2014
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Quote: Mark Twain
Yes, it’s true that volume on Monday’s up move was meager compared to the selloff last week. It’s also true that the small caps regained the 50 DMA for an unconfirmed phase change back to bullish.
Equally true is that NASDAQ 100 traded lifelessly closing down for the month while the Dow closed significantly higher.
Otherwise, all the major sectors-Financials, Semiconductors, Retail, Transportation, Real Estate held on to bullish phases.
Looking top down, we need to see NASDAQ move up and the Small Caps hold the 50 DMA. Low volume may not be the end all be all, but clearly, with 2 out of the 4 indices lagging, looking for price confirmation on the weaklings (comparatively of course), makes sense as Tuesday is April Fool’s Day!
S&P 500 (SPY) Look here and we are above the 2014 Calendar Range
Russell 2000 (IWM) Look here and we are marginally up over the 2014 Calendar Range
Dow (DIA) Look here, and we are NOT over the 2014 Calendar Range-even with the recent strength
Nasdaq (QQQ) Finally,look here, and we are NOT over the 2014 Calendar Range-plus still in a warning phase
XLF (Financials) Topping candle looms and today’s low is a great place for this to defend
SMH (Semiconductors) Semis-the new Biotechs of 2014. Matched the highs and closed on new ones
IYT (Transportation) A really strong contender for new highs if the market holds up
IBB (Biotechnology) Unless this clears 245, still vulnerable with an inside day
XRT (Retail) If the market cannot hold, look here for weakness.
IYR (Real Estate) Really like to see this defend Monday’s lows
XHB (Homebuilders) Crossed the 50 DMA now has to stay there
GLD Weakened but has not violated key support at 121
USO (US Oil Fund) Digested recent move and held last Thursday’s gap
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) It seems like deja vu to watch if 67.00 holds
PHO (Power Shares Water Resources) Water is a commodity too-more precious than gold when you’re thirsty
UUP (Dollar Bull) Hasn’t closed over 21.50 since late February-good point to watch
EEM (Emerging Markets) Overbought now
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
