March 30, 2014
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Quote: Louis Hector Berlioz
Last week ended exactly as one would expect-leaving both the bulls and the bears apprehensive.
After all, looking back at the action, the S&P 500 sold off yet held the 50 DMA. NASDAQ remains weak failing to even test its 50 DMA. The Russell 2000s had a more valiant effort at the 50 DMA but gave it up at the end of the session closing red. Finally, the Dow, closed up on the week yet nowhere near the weekly high created on March 26th at 164.33.
The divergences among the various sectors and groups stay a bit mind-numbing. Real Estate managed to defend the necessary daily and weekly moving averages while Homebuilders lingered in a warning phase. Biotechnology dropped precipitously and many country ETFs had an awesome recovery. Energy, Oil and Oil Service Holders all firmed with the stars of the show, the Energy ETF, XLE and Oil and Gas Exploration (XOP) closing on new all-time highs.
The Volatility Index signposted complacency by falling back into a bear phase. That is most confounding as other signs do seem to point to more downside.
It’s enough (more than enough) for anyone to long for 2013!!! Time travel anyone?
S&P 500 (SPY) Some signs of life. Otherwise, keep eyes on the 50 DMA
Russell 2000 (IWM) Tested 115.49 or the 50 DMA-but could not hold it. Has to or continues to look troubling
Dow (DIA) I would have liked to have seen new weekly highs, but at least this held the fast moving average for now
Nasdaq (QQQ) Relative to the January selloff this is still in good shape. But considering that this represents the leaders, until or unless it clears the 50 DMA-warning sign
XLF (Financials) Let’s make it simple, if this firms-great-but if comes in lower and continues to tick lower, the indices will have issues
SMH (Semiconductors) Although a top is still I place, this has a chance based on Friday’s good performance
IYT (Transportation) Question will be whether or not this can continue to hold the 50 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) A group that has apparently run its spectacular course for now
XRT (Retail) Bounced off the moving averages which again, is really key to determine what the overall market does from here
IYR (Real Estate) Did what it needed to.
XHB (Homebuilders) Obviously would like to see this return over the 50 DMA, but good strong move
GLD If this gaps up-especially over the 200 DMA, good sign
USO (US Oil Fund) Ran in to some resistance but still holding well
OIH (Oil Services) New 2014 highs
XLE (Energy) New all-time high close!!!
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Great high close
UUP (Dollar Bull) Hasn’t closed over 21.50 since late February-good point to watch
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