These Precious Days I'll Spend With You $SPY $QQQ $IWM $DIA

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Hi everyone! I am back from a long and wondrous break. First, big shout out to Geoff Bysshe and Matt Mullins for filling in for me so exquisitely. Thank you so very much!
Now, the market-ahh, the market. Before I left I wrote a lot about the divergences between the indices and the salient sectors and groups-particularly real estate and financials. I am also fond of noting how semiconductors, although not a measure of economic growth per se, need to be at the party. Obviously, those of you involved in the market for the last 3 weeks have seen how divergences come home to roost with the indices now in more negative phases. Of course, the market hates uncertainty as we know; however, the divergence predates the recent concerns over Syria and should be duly noted as an incredible “crystal ball.” Rested and unbiased, I see more trouble ahead as the S&P 500 is in its confirmed warning phase which looks as though it is accelerating. The small caps (Russell 2000) which peaked on August 5^th, showed a clear topping pattern just 2 days later. Now, it too is in a confirmed warning phase as we head into the new month. The only holdout is NASDAQ, which also shows a topping pattern after the peak high from August 26^th, but remains solidly above a rising 50 day moving average.

S&P 500 (SPY) Would look for a sell opportunity against 164.35 if that area remains resistance

Russell 2000 (IWM) 100.00 has some technical and psychological support, but beneath could see 97-98.00 next

Dow (DIA) 145 is next underlying support, then the 200 DMA. Over 149, well, that would be a game changer

Nasdaq (QQQ) Support down to 74.20 and a key to watch for leadership. With all peak tops, those areas have to clear for any sustained rally.

ETFs:

XLF (Financials) The ultimate area to hold is around 18.75

SMH (Semiconductors) That 13 year channel I watched hawkishly has been violated. 37.50 pivotal on a monthly chart. On the daily 35.75 is key support

XRT (Retail) 77.00 has been a support area since June.

IYT (Transportation) My other favorite “tell” is transportation. Right now, best bet to hold these lows but certainly not banking on it just yet. Longer term charts intact which gives this more room to the downside without major damage.

IBB (Biotechnology) In the best shape as it holds the 50 DMA. 192.50 support and 197 resistance for now

IYR (Real Estate) Getting real close to longer term support around November 2012 lows 60.84.

GLDFriday’s low is also the 10 DMA and important support for the shorter term uptrend

USO (US Oil Fund)See a topping pattern from August 28^th at 39.46 with Friday’s low close to the 10 DMA support at 38.13

OIH (Oil Services)Close to the 50 DMA and a long term monthly moving average-eyes here.

XLE (Energy) Subscribers: Good 2-day pattern against support at 81.35. Like over R1 and Friday’s high

XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Not bad looking at these levels

TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) 76.30 the 50 DMA and just below Friday’s close is a good level to watch to hold.