Three Trading Egrets

February 8, 2017

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider

mdaily20170209Let’s face it, this market has baffled pretty much everyone. This year, “uncertain” is one of the most widely used words.

I titled my 2017 Picks published in December “Uncertainty is the New Sure Thing.”

So yes, the Dow sits over 20,000 and NASDAQ continually makes new highs. Yet the other typical historical relationships aren’t working out so typically.

That has left many traders with some egrets (regrets).

What are the top 3?

  1. Too much hyper focus on the onslaught of social media posts.

Never have we had a situation where a President can move the market with a tweet. In retrospect, concerning most of Trump’s tweets, the technical signals relayed the ensuing responses before the tweet even occurred. For example, today’s tweet on Nordstrom (JWN) and their dropping Ivanka’s clothing line meant little. That stock has already been hovering near 2017 lows.

  1. Not following the tech stocks that live in a parallel universe.

Facebook, Netflix and Apple have momentum on their side. This sounds easier than it is. Earnings came smack in the middle of all those stocks earlier gains. Since earnings, none of them are up much higher than they were the day they reported. The risk/reward does not make a lot of sense for position swing traders. Regret? Not becoming more active traders in tech.

  1. Not respecting the January 6-month calendar trading ranges enough.

What more do you need? If the instrument is trading below the low, skip it. Above, buy it. If it has tested the lows and came back through, low risk setup long. If was above the high and failed, low risk short. Simple right? Sometimes even the best traders forget the simple and overthink.

The most wonderful aspect of life as a trader is that each day presents new lessons and opportunities. And that is the key.

If you do not have a repeatable and strategic trading system in place, this year of uncertainty will continue to rattle your mind, spirit and wallet.

Time to lose those egrets and fly.

S&P 500 (SPY) 229.71 all-time high. 228 pivotal support.

Russell 2000 (IWM) 138 key resistance, 135.50 pivotal and 133.59 key support

Dow (DIA) 200 now pivotal support to hold

Nasdaq (QQQ) 124.85 key support. 125.50 pivotal

KRE (Regional Banks) Unconfirmed warning phase. 55 pivotal area at the 50 DMA

SMH (Semiconductors) 75.40 support to hold.

IYT (Transportation) 165.40 the 50 DMA to hold on a closing basis

IBB (Biotechnology) 285 big resistance and 277 big support

XRT (Retail) 42.00 the big support. A close over 43.20 better

IYR (Real Estate) Sideways

GLD (Gold Trust) 117 key support.

SLV (Silver) 16.50 now pivotal. 17.00 the 200 DMA

GDX (Gold Miners) 25.00 now pivotal support.

USO (US Oil Fund) 11.60 next point to clear. 11.00 support

XLE (Sel Energy Spdr Fd) Probably not a bad one to watch for possible reversal bottom

TAN (Solar Energy) On radar but no decent volume

TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) 120 now key support

UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.65 support 26.20 resistance

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