June 29, 2011
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
One thing I'm happy to be wrong about is the decreasing volume as we get closer to the holiday weekend. SPY closed up .9% with an accumulation day in volume. The other big news is that the slope on the 50 day moving average has now gone neutral which puts this back into a weak warning phase. Plus, we busted out of the recent consolidation closing above 129.75 the adaptive moving average. Now we are looking at 131.40 as the next resistance with the 50 day moving average overhead at 131.90. This is assuming that we hold 129.75. If there is any doubt how important the 200 day moving averages is as long term support, this bounce off of the 200 should quell the cynics.
QQQ closed up .4% also with an accumulation day in volume and a neutral slope on the 50 day moving average. It still has to get through 56.47 and then the 50 day moving average overhead at 56.97.
IWM closed above the 50 day moving average going into an unconfirmed bullish phase. Now, 80.74 is the important support to hold and a second close above 82.11 confirms a bullish phase. Of course anything can happen in the next couple of days, but the very best scenario would be some digestion that doesn't necessarily affect the slope of the 50 day moving average.
ETF's:
SMH still in consolidation with the 200 day moving average now support. Also still underperforming the overall market. Unless it takes out 33.50 on the upside, see semiconductors as vulnerable and one of the very first places to go for a short should the market begin to roll over.
IBB this is one I have been tracking carefully and tweeted about two days ago to buy over 104.03. Now, it confirmed into a bullish phase closing at 106.44. The 50 day moving average now the area to hold. See no reason why this cannot continue at least up to test the all time high made in mid May.
XRT I also tweeted about an entry yesterday over 52.50. I have been writing that this might be the first one to go and test the old high and possibly onto new highs. At this point, although I would like to see some digestion, it does appear to be a highly possible scenario.
XLF finally broke through the top of its recent range. Once again, tweeted about follow-through should it break 15.20. Although it is still in a bearish phase, would not be surprised to see this rally up to the 50 day moving average with the possibility of a rally to the 200 day moving average at 15.68. Of course, must hold now around 15.15.
OIH great follow through from yesterday although it did not close above the 50 day moving average which is still sloping down. Therefore, I would not be looking to buy this until it has some level of digestion and consolidation. This is still in a strong warning phase.
GLD got long yesterday at 146.08 in anticipation of a move to 148.10.
SLV** I was very public about the options trade when I bought July 36 puts and when I covered them at 32.50. Now, it is possible that we have an island bottom in place from Monday and Tuesday's price action and today's higher open.
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