February 22, 2018
By Mish Schneider
The Bulls think the Bears foolish. After all, bears have been slaughtered throughout the last year.
Bears think the Bulls foolish. After all, since the correction and then bounce, the buyers have been scant and the phases have mainly stuck to warning.
One could argue that for this very moment in time, both are correct.
With a rangebound market, and roughly a 50% correction from the highs to the recent lows, the market can go either way once the ranges break.
If we look at the probabilty of the indices breaking to the downside, the negative phases in 4 of the 6 Modern Family members supports that case.
If we look at the probability of the indices breaking out, that NASDAQ and Semiconductors are in bullish phases and the weekly charts all show underlying support, that too makes a logical case.
Nonetheless, either the bulls or bears will come out ahead once the range breaks one way or another.
Does the Falconer control the Falcon or does the Falcon control the Falconer?
FANG stocks, all the buzz Wednesday, on Thursday got little love.
Amazon, which made a new all-time high Wednesday before closing on the intraday low, today digested that move with a chance of a reversal top if it breaks 1475.75.
Google also digested yesterday’s move without much fanfare. I still maintain that it has way more to do to fill a gap above at 1169.36.
Facebook, which failed to clear the 50 daily moving average on Wednesday, traded within that range today. Yet, still FB is still in a warning phase.
Netflix, which came within 17 cents of it’s all-time high before it retreated, retreated more today. However, no real technical damage done unless it breaks below 267.
The dollar or UUP made a high of 23.48 but didn’t do very much beyond that.
Remember, that the last time the dollar closed a month beneath 23.48 was in 2014. Plus, UUP has not traded below 23.00 since early 2014.
As for the Modern Family, most are rangebound.
Semiconductors (SMH) range to break 102-106 (in bullish phase).
Regional Banks (KRE) in a bullish phase, range to break- 60.50-63.50.
Biotechnology (IBB) in a warning phase, range to break- 107.50-111.50.
Retail (XRT) in warning, range to break-44.50-46.10
Russell 2000 (IWM), in warning, range to break-150-154.
Transportation (IYT), in warning, range to break-185-193.
Now, to avoid the chop inbetween, we wait to see what instrument breaks the range and if it’s to the down or upside.
Or, like the photo, we hunt and gamehawk until further notice.
Here’s a link to join me live tonight at 8:30 PM https://marketgauge.lpages.co/mmma-20180222-dv/?utm_source=tweet-webreg-1&utm_medium=tweet&utm_campaign=mmma-20180222&utm_term=webreg-1&utm_content=optin-live&Id=
I will be on the @Benzinga PreMarket Prep show on Wednesday, February 28 at 8:35 AM EST! Tune in here. premarket.benzinga.com
S&P 500 (SPY) 272 now resistance. 268 is the weekly number to hold if good Subscribers: Negative Pivots in all except DIA
Russell 2000 (IWM) Under 151.50 will engender caution. Then we look at 150.
Dow (DIA) 247 some support and then 246.25 is the weekly MA to defend if good. 250 pivotal.
Nasdaq (QQQ) Range to break 164-168
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