October 3, 2013
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
As tempting as it is to comment about, blame people or just plain regurgitate the recent events from the government shutdown to the shooter to the talks of Octaper-one thing I hope I have made clear…We have been and continue to be a market full of notable diversions! The small caps and NASDAQ had to stay strong for the weaker siblings or the warning was to watch out! Yes folks, it’s me, live from the technical bubble! The topping candle in the S&P 500, warning phase in the Dow, faltering financial and real estate sectors, Retail unable to take out 2013 highs, just some of the recent concerns over the last several weeks! The bright spots had to remain luminescent-more than luminescent-as bright as the brightest protein-see title-and alas, they fell to the pressure. Now what? For starters, if we go to the light, the small caps have last Friday’s low for possible support. Ditto for NASDAQ. If they can both hold and firm up from Thursday’s selloff, better. If not, Hello 50 day moving average down below.
S&P 500 (SPY) BigDistribution day in volume back to unconfirmed warning phase-not a pretty day
Russell 2000 (IWM) Under 105.24 lives the 50 DMA at 104.20. Over 106.90 lives salvation.
Dow (DIA) The 200 DMA below at 146.73 is a magnet for this sick index
Nasdaq (QQQ) Last Friday’s low 78.00 under that the 50 DMA 77.11.
ETFs:
XLF (Financials) 19.49 was September low.
SMH (Semiconductors) Last Friday’s low was 39.37-pretty far away which means if the market improves, look here
XRT (Retail) I was really hoping I wouldn’t have to think about a double top in this sector. With an outside range top and bottom to Wednesday’s range, now I do.
IYT (Transportation) Landed on the 50 DMA-another place to look if market holds.
IBB (Biotechnology) The bigger they are…but not giving up here yet
GLD Considering the environment of uncertainty, Thursday’s rally is still unimpressive. Inside day-Friday should be more decisive
XOP (Oil and Gas Exploration) Looks like it’s not done yet
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) Through 76.11 expect to see rates rise a bit and talk of taper begin
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