June 11, 2017
By Mish Schneider
The Sopwith Camel was a British WWI fighter aircraft armed with twin synchronized machine guns.
That plane has been credited with shooting down more enemy aircraft than any other Allied fighter. Similarly this year, we have witnessed incredible flying skills from our Wonder Woman Sister Semiconductors.
Considering the recent remake of WW is set during WWI, Semiconductors, or our fearless Camel pilot, finally tangled with the Red Baron last Friday.
SMH dove from the highs in a stunning reversal.
Like the plane photographed, Semi’s suffered damage with a broken wing.
The irony that the plane was British-made does not escape me either, given the recent drama of Theresa May and the British Parliament.
From a technical viewpoint, the reversal is classic. New all-time highs, huge bearish engulfing pattern, more than quadriple the average daily volume, and a much wider than average trading range.
The pictured 1917 Sopwith Camel resides as a relic in Santa Fe’s Artillery Museum.
Is the damage to the Semiconductor’s sector irreparable and might we find it and the 7-year bull run residing in a museum?
Last week, despite what many believed impossible odds, the market sat, although somewhat precariously, near the record highs.
Then, we saw another classic. Sector Rotation.
The Russell 2000 cleared 140. IWM went on to make a new all-time high.
With the selling pressure in not only Semi’s but in the stars of the NASDAQ 100 as well, we did entertain the thought that this rally in the Russell’s could signify the beginning of the 5th Stage of Disbelief.
After all, the 7-year run merits a dramatic ending rather than a milquetoast one.
I also asked myself, “Has the Market provided us with comfy cushions or false bottoms?”
Thinking back, a while ago I shared a monthly chart of the Russell 2000’s. I speculated it could pierce the channel top, then fail it to give traders the best short of the decade.
Here’s the chart as of Friday. I’d say “Bingo,” except the month is young. Nevertheless, pin the chart to your computer for safekeeping.
Getting back to Semiconductors, all reversals, stunning or not, must be confirmed with a second day close under the low of the breakdown day.
That means, SMH must close below 84.09 on Monday to confirm. Or, Monday could set up as an inside day (the range will trade inside of Friday’s wide range). Then Tuesday, 84.09 breaks or not.
Perhaps, like the Sopwith Camel, Semi’s are headed for the museum. However soon after, like the Russell’s and the Financial Sectors, the new and improved Sopwith Snipe appeared.
This week, we will see if the Russell’s, Financials and Transportation Sectors become the all-new more powerful Snipe engines to battle the market gods of nasty reversals.
S&P 500 (SPY) The launch from 240 (unless it breaks) met a target at 245. Could it see 246.50 as the next target before Bollinger band resistance sets in?
Russell 2000 (IWM) With a monthly channel top at 142-143 level, Friday tested that top. The month is young. Either this takes a bigger lead, or that was it-party over.
Dow (DIA) New highs. The 5th Stage of Disbelief? 211 pivotal
Nasdaq (QQQ) I’m going to guess inside day on Monday. Stay tuned for Tuesday
KRE (Regional Banks) Confirmed the bullish phase. 56.00 next point of resistance with 53.60 the underlying support
SMH (Semiconductors) 84.00 support. 86 pivotal.
IYT (Transportation) 168 pivotal number. Then there’s still resistance all the way up to 172.89. Support now at 167
IBB (Biotechnology) 291-292 must hold and the elusive 300 must clear.
XRT (Retail) Another wildcard in the sector rotation. Summer could mean folks shop less online and head back to the dwindling malls. 41.00 pivotal and 42 the overhead 50-DMA
IYR (Real Estate) Held all the moving averages but still in massive consolidation between 77 and 81.
XLU (Utilities) 53.25 area near-term support.
GLD (Gold Trust) 119.85 the underlying 50-DMA. 124.50-125.50 next big resistance
SLV (Silver) Couldn’t clear the MAs so now back in Bearish phase
GDX (Gold Miners) Converging Moving averages so wouldn’t give up yet if clears them over 23.40
XME (S&P Metals and Mining) Held 30 so could get interesting
USO (US Oil Fund) Not much of a rally.
XLE (Sel Energy Spdr Fd) So I was a tad early here on that reversal. Now if good, should hold around 65.60.
XOP (Oil & Gas Exploration) Maybe reversal in the works
TAN (Solar Energy) Closed at 18.60 now pivotal
TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasuries) Retracting from the 200 DMA ahead of FED
UUP (Dollar Bull) 25.10 now pivotal
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