November 18, 2017
Weekly Market Outlook
By Keith Schneider
US equities market had a sloppy week with movement out of the Dow (DIA) -.44% and into the Russell 2000 (IWM) +1.27%, which had been languishing since early October.
Most interesting was that two modern family members Regional Banks (KRE) and Retail (XRT ) which were having issues the last few months, came out of last week’s therapy session with an improved outlook.
So, while the equity indexes were experiencing selling pressure mid-week, those weak sectors held firm and upgraded their market phase. In fact, retail (XRT) was the leading sector, up 3.9% this week.
One thing for certain, whoever forked over $450 million for a Leonardo Da Vinci painting that has questionable provenance certainly paid retail. The painting sold for only $10,000 as recently as 2005. Maybe the buyer was recycling profits from a good day trade in XRT or lightened up on some Bitcoin. This transaction certainly highlights that the amount of funny money sloshing around the world is astonishing. It could have been created by computer chips into Crypto or printed by Central Bankers, liquidity is overflowing and highly concentrated.
On the more mundane side of things, our risk gauges are flashing red, and institutional volume is nowhere to be found and this is especially true in larger caps.
Gold and Silver are coiling confirmed by strength in emerging markets. If Silver can hang on to and improve its recent gains it would bode well for these ancient relics. The biggest bull markets in these old physical currencies occur when silver outperforms its yellow cousin.
Oil digested it recent moves over the past few weeks and closed well on Friday.
For those who have a penchant for the glass being half full, when weak sectors regain regained their footing it’s usually a positive sign. Once again, we have some short-term patterns that can be played while being directionally agnostic