May Broke Records as 2025 Continues to Replicate History.
Is 1980, 1997 or 2001 Next?

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There's a narrative in the headlines that advocates expecting June to be calm after May delivered the biggest equity gains in any May since 1990. This a convenient message for anyone hoping for less chaotic news flow and a break from 2025's tumultuous market action, but summers aren't always slow, and I don’t want to miss the upcoming June!

We're leaning into the idea that June is the time to get ready for the new market season that happens every year - the second half.

Based on Ryan Deitric's chart below, every big May (over 5%) has led to positive returns in stocks over the next 12 months with an impressive average return of 19.9% which is double the average 12 month return.

More impressively, the “market signal” has been correct 100% of the time. Granted the sample size is small.

I dug deeper into Ryan’s idea and found another interesting pattern shown below.  One of the years in the chart above (1997) has a remarkably similar year to date trading pattern as 2025.

A little more research discovered that 1980 and 2001 also have remarkable similar year-to-date patterns.

However, as you can see from the chart below, June was when the repetition broke down in 2001.

So, which will it be for 2025? 1997? 2001? Or one of the other years in the table above.

 

**This week’s full commentary will be released late tonight. Please enjoy the bullets and video below now.

 

 

 

Every week we review the big picture of the market's technical condition as seen through the lens of our Big View data charts. The bullets provide a quick summary organized by conditions we see as being risk-on, risk-off, or neutral.  The video analysis dives deeper.

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Summary: Overall sentiment leans cautiously risk-on, with strength in major indices, growth stocks, and global equities, while some mixed signals—like weak small caps, leadership from defensive sectors, and neutral volume patterns—suggest a market still navigating pockets of hesitation.

Risk On

• Markets were up about one percent over the last five trading days thanks to Tuesday’s gap higher. Nasdaq and S&P remain the strongest and not far off their all-time highs. (+)
• 11 of the fourteen sectors were up on the week, however, consumer staples, gold miners, and utilities led, all more risk-off sectors, while semiconductors was the weakest sector, a weak positive. (+)
• The new high new low ratio, based on moving averages and the current reading are all converging at fairly positive levels. (+)
• The color charts (moving average of stocks above key moving averages) are showing neutral readings for the short-term, while the intermediate and longer-term readings are still very positive. (+)
• Risk gauges backed off slightly from their most bullish readings, but remains strongly positive. (+)
• Growth continues to outperform value stocks with Growth in an accumulation phase while Value is still in a recovery phase. A weak positive reading. (+)
• In the Modern Family, retail recovered its 200-Day Moving Average and is leading the rest of the family. Overall, we have a weak risk-on reading from the family. (+)
• Foreign equities backed off a little from their recent leadership, but remain in strong bull phases and globally, equities look like they are in risk-on mode. (+)
• Agriculture ETF, DBA, broke down under its 50-Day Moving Average into a warning phase. It needs to hold onto its 200-Day Moving Average to keep the longer-term trend intact. Could signal some inflationary pressures easing. (=)
• Rates calmly eased over the week after testing its down channel lows (and oversold levels on our Real Motion indicator). (+)
• Seasonally, we are hitting an overall strong period for markets, especially for Small Caps, which have been lagging this year. (+)

Neutral

• Small caps remain quite weak, down almost -7% year-to-date. (=)
• Volume patterns remain neutral, though the Russels, otherwise the weakest index, improved. (=)
• Mixed read with the McClellan Oscillator hovering just under neutral while short-term up down volume patterns improved. (=)
• Volatility remains moderately elevated overall, though the cash VIX dropped below its 200-Day Moving Average into a distribution phase. (=)
• Gold is looking a little indecisive. A large flag may be forming with a potential breakout to the upside or a potential failure of its bull phase if we break $296.50. (=)