All In All You're Another Brick In the Wall $SPY $QQQ $IWM

November 8, 2012

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


We are no strangers anymore to market swings of 100-300 points on any given day. The deterioration began when the indexes broke their 50 DMAs in the past 30 days. But, ahead of the election, SPY in particular tried its hand at testing it. The warning phases are exactly that-warnings. Now, Russell 2000, DOW and NASDAQ 100 are unconfirmed in distribution phases (need 2 days to confirm). That can accelerate to something worse or reverse back to warning. When indexes change phases, we like to go to a 2-prong plan. First, stock picking-my particular specialty (Touted several times by TA Stocks and Commodities Magazine-see the November issue with an exclusive interview they did with me) with the help of proprietary scanning software that is truly cutting edge. Second, sector rotation-especially balancing portfolios with both longs and shorts based on the individual ETFs and corresponding equities weighted in those sectors/groups.

S&P 500 (SPY) Big distribution day in volume. 138.23 the 200 DMA.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Unconfirmed distribution phase. 80.60 the 200 DMA now resistance unless it clears and closes back above it

Dow (DIA) Unconfirmed distribution phase. 129.70 the 200 DMA now resistance unless it clears and closes back above it.

NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) AAPL held a 50% retracement of the Fibonacci sequence from 2012 low to high. Better to watch that then the index itself.

ETFs:

GLD Looking to see if holds around 165.50 and does some consolidation before making any strong recommendation

XLF (Financials) Well, like I wrote, under 16 vulnerable. Entered an unconfirmed warning phase. Unless it comes back and closes above 15.80, likely to see the 200 DMA

IBB (Biotechnology) Got to the 200 DMA which I hope at least, was a signal for some of you to get out of longer term longs when I began to write that this sector was done for now (about a month ago). This would be a really great place for this to hold.

SMH (Semiconductors) Back to unconfirmed bear phase, but holding the fast moving average.

XRT (Retail) Unconfirmed weak warning phase. Held the fast moving average. Best one to watch for a sign of strength.

IYT (Transportation) Holds here, another place to look although sideways is the theme for this year.

IYR (Real Estate) Strong warning phase but outperformed. If holds Wednesday low, and takes out the high, compelling.

XLE (Energy). Held the 200 DMA. Over 71.00 helps otherwise, weak looking now.

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