November 8, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
I worry when I see so called "professional" traders who have subscription services and recommend that folks buy falling knives in the "hope" that they will be the first ones to be "right". This is dangerous and quite frankly, the exact opposite of what one should do when markets are in free fall. When the market bottoms, there are obvious signs. Walls of support against daily chart points, accumulation in volume on the up days, penetration of old resistance areas, phase and condition changes, converging moving averages, etc. So, if you cannot be a seller or even buyer of ultrashorts, then stay in cash until the signs appear.
Note: Check out TA Stocks and Commodities Magazine- November issue with an exclusive interview they did with me.
S&P 500 (SPY) If it can get back over the 200 DMA 138.26 and give another indication like clearance of the pivots, then perhaps a buy for a pop is feasible with tight stops. Otherwise, could see 135.
Russell 2000 (IWM) If this gets back over 79.91 might take a small long but ultimately has to cross the 200 DMA to stick.
Dow (DIA) 129.72 the 200 DMA now resistance unless it clears and closes back above it.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Getting close to early summer support levels with a very oversold weekly RSI.
ETFs:
GLD Continued to run up after the 30 year bond auction that yielded lower rates .168.38 is the overhead 50 DMA. 167.30
XLF (Financials) Tried 15.80, but unless it clears, likely to see the 200 DMA
IBB (Biotechnology) Hovering at the 200 DMA. Subs: Watch this for a phase hold/change. Video goes into details. Want to buy over 129 if market is cooperating
SMH (Semiconductors) Closed below the fast moving average. Expect lower prices but not necessarily new lows.
XRT (Retail) Major dump and hopefully not a sign that what was just yesterday, the best looking sector, quickly disintegrating to a major cause for concern for quite some time. Support at the 10/26 low 60.83
IYR (Real Estate) Strong warning phase. Landed on the 200 DMA with 10/26 low 62.86
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day and not oversold.
XLE (Energy) Got close to the 65-weekly moving average.
GDX (Gold Miners) Tested the upward sloping overhead 50 DMA. Weekly close over 52.00 positive.
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
