October 27, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Incredible sideways action the last 4 days of the week in S&P 500, the Dow, and a test but hold of the 200 DMA in NASDAQ and the Russell 2000. Still lots of earnings ahead, but the big guns are done-all with poor reports, yet apparently deeply discounted after the first one, GOOG's, proverbial you know what hit the fan. The week therefore ended decidedly undecided. Indexes remain in accelerated warning phases. Seems that SPY might have the most to lose and QQQ the most to gain. And there you are-follow the lead up or down.
S&P 500 (SPY) 142.28 a good number to watch. Downside, under 140.50 and the 200 DMA seems likely
Russell 2000 (IWM) 82.00 has to clear or under 80.43 see 77 level not out of the question.
Dow (DIA) 131.35 has to clear or 129.55 is next.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Over 65.62 could save the day. Otherwise, 61.60 next real major support
ETFs:
GLD If cannot hold 166, looking at 163.50
XLF (Financials) Tested but closed above the 50 DMA keeping the bullish phase intact. Like to see it clear 16.03 or that hold could be ephemeral.
IBB (Biotechnology) Friday was key as been thinking this move was done for a while, but thought perhaps it could have one more rise left. It did not. 128 is the 200 DMA.
SMH (Semiconductors) The best hope besides a reversal in NASDAQ. 31.23 has to clear or the possibility remains that a right shoulder to a bigger head and shoulders top is forming
XRT (Retail) Weak warning phase. Looks better if can clear 61.85
IYR (Real Estate) Another test of the 200 DMA.
USO (US Oil Fund) Inside day, but unless it gaps over 32.15, leave it alone
OIH (Oil Services) Looks pretty heavy
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs back over the 200 DMA. Watch 123.10
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