October 31, 2012
Mish's Daily
By Mish Schneider
Back from the storm with more sideways action in S&P 500, the Dow, and an inside day in the Russell 2000. NASDAQ also posted an inside day but closed in an unconfirmed distribution phase with neutral market internals both long and short term. The other indexes remain in accelerated warning phases with SPY now short term positive and long term neutral. That means pre-weekend analysis also remains the same- SPY has the most to lose and QQQ the most to gain. Follow the leader up or down. Some interesting developments in the sectors/groups. See below.
S&P 500 (SPY) 142.06 a good number to watch. Downside, under 140.50 and the 200 DMA seems likely
Russell 2000 (IWM) With inside day, can follow the way the range breaks
Dow (DIA) 131.60 has to clear or 129.60 is next.
NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) Over 65.62 and would be a buyer. Otherwise, first watch 64.65 then 61.60 next real major support
ETFs:
GLD Opened back over 166 which is now a good pivotal number. Stopped at the fast moving average.
XLF (Financials) One of the few in a bullish phase. As long as the 50 DMA stays intact, like to see it clear 16.03 or that hold could be ephemeral.
IBB (Biotechnology) 128.20 is the 200 DMA. Now approaching oversold
SMH (Semiconductors) Closed negative after retreating from the weekly moving average. Held the fast moving average. Happy if that continues, otherwise, an ominous sign if it does not.
XRT (Retail) Performed well. Back over the 50 DMA and we have a second sector back to bullish, joining financials.
IYR (Real Estate) Bounced off of the 200 DMA. We need to see this over 64.30 and then we have 3 key sectors indicating a bottom with retail and financials.
USO (US Oil Fund) Until it gaps over 32.17, leave it alone
TBT (Ultrashort Lehman 20+ Year Treasuries) TLTs back over the 50 DMA. Watch 123.15 pivotal.
Every day you'll be prepared to trade with:
