The Fire Rooster’s Last Cock-a-Doodle-Doo

February 6, 2018

Mish's Daily

By Mish Schneider


blankWith 10 days left until the Rooster packs it in and the Earth Dog takes over, no surprise to see our flamboyant friend find fire after the meltdown.

At one point during the night, the futures pointed to a 1000 point lower opening today.

Yet, in strutted the fire rooster and all of a sudden, the chicks lined up to be wooed.

Impressive I might add.

The areas that we needed to see pierced-267.40 in the S&P 500, 100.27 in Semiconductors and 161 in NASDAQ 100-all pierced.

On the other hand, all but NASDAQ also confirmed a warning phase.

In the Modern Family, Semiconductors, Retail and Transportation also confirmed warning phases.

Biotechnology and Regional Banks cleared the 50 daily moving average and went back into unconfirmed bullish phases.

So, is that it? Are we experiencing a big never mind? The volatilty index debacle is a one-day event?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average remains below 25,000., even with the over 550 point rally.

But overlooking all that for a moment, let’s look under the hood.

Every financial planner and lots of talking heads came out to say “don’t panic.”

The economy is strong and wages increased.

I agree that panic is not a trading strategy.

Nevertheless, the underlying issues remain as underlying issues.

Interest rates went back up along with the market strength. The dollar did as well, yet not enough to clear the monthly chart breakdown nor has it come close to the weekly chart breakdown.

Should the dollar turn back down-say back below 23.35 (UUP), what has really changed?

The Fed will still face that conundrum of what monetary policy makes sense should the market turn lower again.

My game plan for position trading (not daytrading-totally different stakes), continues to focus on the rates, dollar, and commodities.

The metals sold off and the bears emerged from the woodwork.

I’ve been around long enough to know that the metals, should the dollar drop, rates rise and the market fall, will look cheap.

Interestingly, the agriculturals I mentioned last night-Corn, Soybeans, Wheat and Sugar all moved up today.

DBA, the agricultural commodity ETF, closed just shy of 19.00, our buy signal.

At this point, today’s equities danced with the fire rooster. The bulls cock-a-doodle-doo’d.

Let’s not get too cocky though. Coming right up-our Brown Earth Dog-man’s best friend, yet in Chinese astrology, also known as the “Grave of Fire.”

S&P 500 (SPY) None of the indices cleared R1. Significant? Perhaps. For SPY, 273 is R1 tomorrow while a break of today’s low will not bode well.

Russell 2000 (IWM) Bounced off the 200 DMA and 50-week MA. But, can it clear 152 R1 or will it fail 145.75 and head back down?

Dow (DIA) 253 is R! here-also a return over 25,000 while a move under 241 will not look so good

Nasdaq (QQQ) We go for the way better over 261. Yet, R1 is 164.85 and under 157 not so good.

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