Mixed Message

May 3, 2021

Weekly Market Outlook

By Keith Schneider

blankDue to our recent relocation (we sold our home and moved to another over the past two weeks) this week’s video and weekly highlights are now available. We are sorry for the delay and this week’s shorter edition.


Here are this week’s latest highlights:

  • Risk Gauges moved from bullish to neutral.
  • Momentum on the daily charts is questionable but has not failed yet on the 4 key indices. Look for a swing failure on our Real Motion indicator charts for an early signal to exit.
  • QQQ’s are showing a negative momentum divergence at recent highs, if we breach recent swing levels consider exiting in anticipation of a major selloff.
  • Market volume patterns are showing distribution.
  • The Tech sector led by semiconductors is showing relative weakness over the last 5 trading days.
  • US Bonds (TLT) are hovering between a recovery and bearish phase and how it resolves will be critical to the overall health of equities.
  • Both XLU vs SPY and GLD vs SPY are showing risk-off.
  • In terms of style investing, value stocks are maintaining their relatively new leadership over growth.
  • XRT has stalled at recent highs, confirmed by momentum readings falling under its short-term moving average.
  • With inflationary pressures taking effect, Soft commodities are exploding but could be running a bit rich in the short-term.
  • The dollar remains under pressure on a longer-term basis.

Best wishes for your trading,

Keith Schneider

CEO, MarketGauge

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