The Chop Continues

August 22, 2021

Weekly Market Outlook

By Keith Schneider


Markets continue to chop during this seasonally weak period and have made no progress over the past 30 days.

Price patterns of the key US Equity indexes are holding up at key moving averages, but there are signs of stress that should not be ignored.

Small Caps (Grandpa Russell: IWM) which represent the broadest measure of the US economy touched the lowest levels of a 7-month trading range, and was down almost 2% for the week.

Other signs of stress include poor momentum readings, weak Risk Gauges, rising Hindenburg Omen levels (see chart below and weekly highlights for details), and sector rotation showing risk off as utilities (XLU) hit new all-time highs.

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Meanwhile, short term, equities are mean reverting, bouncing off oversold conditions and key moving averages. This could offer an opportunity to take some money off the table at higher levels and/or tighten stops if last week’s lows are violated.

On a more positive note, growth stocks are holding firm relative to safer value plays which is why the big picture is muddy at best.

If you’re looking for a way to identify the stocks and sectors that are most likely to explode higher (some already have - i.e. MSFT, ADBE, CSCO, NVDA, and more), after last week’s mini-correction…

Check out last week’s special training on how to identify the next market leading trends by clicking here.

 

This Week’s Market Highlights:

  • Risk Gauges are showing Risk-Off as of the end of the week.
  • IWM tested the lower Bollinger band on both price and Real Motion, now getting a bounce off oversold levels back over the 200-DMA.
  • QQQ, SPY and DIA all tested their 50-DMA’s and bounced, keeping the long-term trend intact. However, the divergence of momentum from price in these indices is still in effect
  • If the above 3 indices fail their 50-DMA’s it would be a sign of an interim top
  • Market internals hit moderately oversold levels according to the McClellan Oscillator and Real Motion.
  • The Hindenburg Omen indicator is starting to show an increased potential for market collapse. As you can see from the chart above and in Big View here, the market internals are at odds with the SPY at new highs. While we’ve created a proprietary formula for this indicator, you can find a good description of what it's measuring under the chart here.
  • A more simplistic, but equally as powerful indictor as the Hindenburg Omen is the new high / new low ratio. It too is deteriorating quickly in SPY.
  • Volume patterns are showing a mixed bag, with overall accumulation days matching distribution days over the last two weeks across all 4 indices. However, over the past 30-days the major indices have made virtually no progress, with IWM performing the worst; down 2%.
  • Soft Commodities (DBA) is currently stuck in a long-term trading range and losing momentum, while Copper (CPER) is starting to mean revert, bouncing off oversold levels holding support at its 200-DMA.
  • Oil (USO) is breaking down hard and will look for support at its 200-DMA.
  • Despite taper talks from the Fed, Long Bonds (TLT) has price creating a channel/wedge formation in recent weeks, looking for a potentially significant breakout if price gets above the $152 level.
  • Growth (VUG) is showing strength as Real Motion has the 50-DMA moving back over the 200-DMA, while Value (VTV) is doing the inverse.
  • Biotech (IBB) continues to sustain its Bullish phase, while all the other members of the Modern Family are in Caution phases.
  • Emerging Markets (EEM) are submerging, breaking critical swing points and looking oversold on a short-term basis.
  • Utilities (XLU) and Healthcare (XLV) are the two leading sectors this week, with Oil (USO & OIH) completely collapsing with a -8.5% drop over the last 5 days, another Risk-Off signal.
  • The US Dollar (UUP) is looking slightly overbought short-term, but longer-term trend turned bullish.

 

This Week’s Cryptocurrency Highlights:
(by Holden Milstein)

  • Bitcoin (BTC) has seen its 10-DMA successfully get back over the 200-DMA for the first time since May 24th, with price currently at $49,500. Support is at $45,000 and resistance at $50,000 which will likely be passed by Monday morning.
  • Ethereum (ETH) has been virtually flat over the last 7-days, but managed to hold support at $3,000 during the midweek cryptocurrency market drawdown, now sitting just below resistance at $3,300.
  • The Altcoin market appears to be in full bullish mode, with several lesser known projects like Solana (SOL) and Cardano (ADA) reaching new all-time highs.
  • Bitcoin's market dominance (percentage of overall cryptocurrency market cap) has dropped to 44% from 70% at the beginning of 2021, signifying a longer term diversification within the crypto market.


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